Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Steel 52.8% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.7%
Defensive zone
Steel 60.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Nelson
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Nelson
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
56.9% (320)
-5.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
71.4% (7)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
37.0% (73)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Steel is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Nelson
Steel
Home
52.5% (590)
55.9% (202)
Away
51.7% (619)
51.0% (198)
By Period
Nelson
Steel
P1
50.5%
55.5%
P2
54.4%
55.1%
P3
51.4%
50.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Sam Steel |