Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Steel 50.2% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.8%
Neutral zone
Steel 52.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Nelson
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Nelson
Steel
Last 9: Nelson 3-6 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
2
3
Nelson
Steel
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Steel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
Nelson
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.6% (2,876)
-2.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
62.6% (179)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
37.4% (254)
+6.4%
On power play, Steel has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
Nelson
Steel
Home
50.0% (5,845)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Nelson
Steel
P1
48.7%
51.9%
P2
48.5%
49.5%
P3
47.7%
49.6%
OT
45.6%
41.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 04:23 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 21, 2019 | OT | 00:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 15:43 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 07:29 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Sam Steel |