Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 50.2%). Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Kuraly 50.1% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 69.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Nelson
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Nelson
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
51.8% (444)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
45.3% (150)
-1.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuraly
Home
52.3% (621)
54.6% (304)
Away
48.9% (618)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Nelson
Kuraly
P1
48.4%
55.2%
P2
53.5%
45.7%
P3
50.3%
49.5%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:08 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |