Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Kuraly 50.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 31-24 in 55 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 79.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 68.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Nelson
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
31
(55 meetings)
24
31
Nelson
Kuraly
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
8
Nelson
Kuraly
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
13
Nelson
Kuraly
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
8
10
Nelson
Kuraly
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
51.5% (5,141)
-3.6%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
56.0% (100)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
44.2% (1,086)
-0.4%
On even strength, Kuraly has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuraly
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Nelson
Kuraly
P1
48.7%
51.1%
P2
48.5%
49.9%
P3
47.7%
50.0%
OT
45.6%
52.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:08 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 07:11 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:47 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 04:16 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:19 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 3 | 11:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:09 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:38 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 17:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |