Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Kuraly 53.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 76.7%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 65.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Nelson
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Kuraly
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Kuraly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Nelson
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Nelson
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
55.3% (515)
-4.0%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
55.6% (9)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
44.8% (58)
+7.1%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Kuraly is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuraly
Home
52.5% (590)
57.3% (293)
Away
51.7% (619)
51.2% (289)
By Period
Nelson
Kuraly
P1
50.5%
53.8%
P2
54.4%
51.5%
P3
51.4%
57.6%
OT
47.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 07:11 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:47 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 04:16 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |