Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Kuraly 48.4% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 83.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 63.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.2%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Nelson
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Nelson
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Nelson
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Nelson
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
49.4% (445)
-3.3%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
100.0% (3)
-65.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
41.9% (117)
-11.5%
On power play, Kuraly has a +65.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Kuraly is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuraly
Home
48.7% (419)
49.2% (248)
Away
41.3% (368)
47.3% (317)
By Period
Nelson
Kuraly
P1
44.6%
48.3%
P2
47.3%
44.7%
P3
43.0%
51.7%
Final 5 min
39.4%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:19 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |