Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Kuraly 49.7% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 82.2%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 90.4%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 59.8%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Nelson
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Nelson
Kuraly
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
Kuraly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
49.2% (901)
-2.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
68.2% (22)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
49.8% (219)
-24.8%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuraly
Home
48.9% (521)
51.7% (603)
Away
45.5% (516)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Nelson
Kuraly
P1
45.9%
50.9%
P2
48.0%
49.5%
P3
48.0%
49.1%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2023 | 3 | 11:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:09 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 24, 2023 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:38 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 17:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 11:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 08:26 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 00:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |