Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Kuraly 53.2% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 91.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 72.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 78.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 81.3%
81.3%
18.7%
Nelson
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nelson
Kuraly
Last 9: Nelson 2-7 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Nelson
Kuraly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Nelson
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
3
Nelson
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
54.5% (464)
-7.1%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
0.0% (1)
+51.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
50.0% (66)
-7.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +51.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Nelson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Nelson shoots left. Kuraly is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuraly
Home
51.0% (641)
52.3% (281)
Away
44.1% (605)
55.6% (250)
By Period
Nelson
Kuraly
P1
48.2%
56.0%
P2
48.1%
60.8%
P3
46.9%
44.3%
OT
42.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.6%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.7%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 07:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 00:32 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 1 | 15:52 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 3 | 03:05 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 10:45 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 1 | 19:34 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 1 | 09:22 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |