Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Stützle 45.8% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 69.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Nelson
Stützle
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
Nelson
Stützle
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Stützle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
Stützle
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stützle
1
3
Nelson
Stützle
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Stützle
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stützle
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
45.1% (2,292)
+2.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
55.4% (101)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
47.7% (86)
-3.9%
On penalty kill, Stützle has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stützle shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Stützle is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,489).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stützle
Home
50.0% (5,845)
47.7% (1,282)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
43.4% (1,197)
By Period
Nelson
Stützle
P1
48.7%
47.1%
P2
48.5%
45.4%
P3
47.7%
44.1%
OT
45.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Stützle
54.0%▲
50.5%
45.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 17:14 | Neutral | Tim Stützle |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 10:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:27 | Defensive | Tim Stützle |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 18:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Tim Stützle |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 08:52 | Defensive | Tim Stützle |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:31 | Neutral | Tim Stützle |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:38 | Neutral | Tim Stützle |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 03:17 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 13:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |