Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Gourde 45.6% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Nelson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
47.1% (463)
+2.9%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
36.4% (11)
+19.9%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
29.9% (67)
+12.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Nelson shoots left. Gourde is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gourde
Home
50.4% (472)
42.3% (215)
Away
48.6% (477)
46.3% (326)
By Period
Nelson
Gourde
P1
47.2%
44.8%
P2
53.4%
49.1%
P3
47.8%
40.1%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |