Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Gourde 46.0% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 87.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 77.4%
77.4%
22.6%
Nelson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
47.2% (654)
+3.5%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
45.0% (20)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
32.2% (87)
+11.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gourde
Home
52.3% (621)
44.1% (322)
Away
48.9% (618)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Nelson
Gourde
P1
48.4%
42.4%
P2
53.5%
49.8%
P3
50.3%
44.3%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |