Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.2%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Gourde 48.2% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 23-22 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 59.0%
Defensive zone
Gourde 53.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Nelson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
22
(45 meetings)
23
22
Nelson
Gourde
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
5
Nelson
Gourde
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
6
9
Nelson
Gourde
15 total
Neutral Zone
Even
8
8
Nelson
Gourde
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.4% (4,954)
-0.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
57.4% (376)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
39.9% (554)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gourde
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Nelson
Gourde
P1
48.7%
49.9%
P2
48.5%
47.4%
P3
47.7%
47.5%
OT
45.6%
37.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 16:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 06:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 01:27 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 12:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:50 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 06:20 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 02:25 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |