Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Gourde 48.0% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.8%
Defensive zone
Gourde 52.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Nelson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Nelson
Gourde
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
3
Nelson
Gourde
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
4
Nelson
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
48.0% (914)
-1.9%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
54.2% (48)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
43.9% (123)
-13.5%
On power play, Gourde has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gourde
Home
48.7% (419)
50.2% (512)
Away
41.3% (368)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Nelson
Gourde
P1
44.6%
50.0%
P2
47.3%
45.3%
P3
43.0%
48.6%
OT
100.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 12:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:50 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 06:20 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 02:25 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |