Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Gourde 49.7% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.1%
Defensive zone
Gourde 71.7%
Neutral zone
Gourde 53.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Nelson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nelson
Gourde
Last 5: Nelson 4-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Nelson
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
49.1% (847)
-2.2%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
79.5% (44)
-22.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
39.5% (81)
-14.5%
On power play, Gourde has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Gourde is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gourde
Home
48.9% (521)
50.1% (491)
Away
45.5% (516)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Nelson
Gourde
P1
45.9%
54.7%
P2
48.0%
45.0%
P3
48.0%
49.4%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 01:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 07:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 07:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 17:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |