Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Gourde 49.5% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.8%
Defensive zone
Gourde 59.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.8%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Nelson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
49.1% (731)
+0.8%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
54.3% (81)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
48.2% (85)
-19.6%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Gourde is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (556).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gourde
Home
49.8% (458)
50.9% (479)
Away
49.0% (506)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Nelson
Gourde
P1
50.1%
51.2%
P2
45.4%
49.8%
P3
52.7%
47.5%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 19:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 11:17 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 10:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |