Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Gourde 49.7% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.5%
Defensive zone
Gourde 60.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Nelson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Gourde
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Nelson
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
51.2% (469)
+0.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
42.9% (21)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
37.5% (48)
+14.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gourde
Home
52.5% (590)
47.8% (301)
Away
51.7% (619)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Nelson
Gourde
P1
50.5%
47.3%
P2
54.4%
53.4%
P3
51.4%
48.6%
OT
47.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 16:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 06:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 01:27 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |