Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Gourde 44.8% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 66.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 79.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Nelson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Nelson
Gourde
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Nelson
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
Gourde
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
40.9% (279)
+7.1%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
58.3% (60)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
36.0% (25)
+4.5%
On even strength, Nelson has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Nelson is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Nelson shoots left. Gourde is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (258).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gourde
Home
51.1% (399)
45.5% (189)
Away
45.6% (406)
41.1% (175)
By Period
Nelson
Gourde
P1
51.8%
42.4%
P2
47.5%
48.3%
P3
46.5%
40.3%
OT
20.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
43.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2017 | 3 | 08:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 3 | 05:11 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 3 | 05:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 2 | 17:22 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 1 | 17:47 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 1 | 12:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 1 | 09:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |