Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 49.5% vs O'Reilly 57.6% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 80.2%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 73.8%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 70.3%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Last 7: Jarnkrok 1-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (742)
57.9% (1,179)
-7.2%
Power Play
62.1% (29)
63.0% (292)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (144)
53.8% (320)
-13.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jarnkrok is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Jarnkrok shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Home
52.4% (489)
61.3% (884)
Away
46.0% (426)
54.8% (907)
By Period
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
P1
51.9%
55.5%
P2
50.3%
61.0%
P3
46.4%
56.8%
OT
37.5%
67.7%
Final 5 min
57.1%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2017 | OT | 01:02 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 28, 2017 | OT | 00:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 12:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 00:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 19:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |