Scouting Report
Calle Jarnkrok holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Jarnkrok wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 51.9% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 82.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 65.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 70.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
2
0
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (16)
55.4% (826)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
50.4% (129)
+8.4%
On penalty kill, Jarnkrok has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jarnkrok is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (28).
Jarnkrok shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Home
66.7% (18)
55.8% (579)
Away
46.7% (15)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
57.7%
P2
72.7%
54.8%
P3
50.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
57.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |