Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Jarnkrok wins 40.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 47.4% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 65.0%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 58.8%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 66.5%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (56)
56.1% (690)
-15.0%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
64.6% (96)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (26)
45.9% (109)
+4.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jarnkrok is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (80).
Jarnkrok shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Home
55.3% (47)
58.3% (408)
Away
34.0% (47)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
P1
33.3%
57.7%
P2
50.0%
54.8%
P3
48.5%
55.2%
Final 5 min
40.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
52.0%▲
48.5%
44.7%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 08:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |