Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarnkrok on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 51.0% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 56.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 65.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Last 8: Jarnkrok 4-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
2
1
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (326)
56.6% (1,064)
-4.8%
Power Play
54.4% (79)
60.4% (260)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (62)
54.0% (261)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jarnkrok is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Jarnkrok shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Home
53.0% (281)
54.9% (801)
Away
48.4% (186)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
P1
51.6%
58.0%
P2
50.6%
56.7%
P3
51.5%
55.4%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
52.1%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 06:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 12:07 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 05:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 18:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 18:42 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |