Casey Mittelstadt vs Connor McDavid
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs McDavid 51.0% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 61.6%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 60.9%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 61.4%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Mittelstadt
McDavid
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Mittelstadt
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
51.6% (803)
-5.2%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
50.0% (40)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
36.4% (22)
+13.6%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Mittelstadt shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Home
47.7% (583)
51.8% (415)
Away
46.4% (541)
50.4% (450)
By Period
Mittelstadt
McDavid
P1
50.0%
47.5%
P2
46.2%
51.6%
P3
45.5%
55.5%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 11:58 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 12:32 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:57 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |