Casey Mittelstadt vs Connor McDavid
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 45.6% vs McDavid 47.8% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 63.4%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 60.4%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 63.6%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Last 10: Mittelstadt 3-7 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
6
Mittelstadt
McDavid
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Mittelstadt
McDavid
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
2
Mittelstadt
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (3,922)
47.7% (8,358)
-2.7%
Power Play
49.7% (666)
52.0% (371)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (96)
43.4% (279)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Mittelstadt is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,780).
Mittelstadt shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Home
46.7% (2,316)
49.3% (4,570)
Away
44.3% (2,368)
46.1% (4,438)
By Period
Mittelstadt
McDavid
P1
46.8%
46.5%
P2
46.1%
48.7%
P3
44.0%
48.3%
OT
36.6%
40.9%
Final 5 min
43.6%
50.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.5%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:27 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:18 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:16 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 11:58 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 12:32 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:57 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2019 | 2 | 09:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |