Casey Mittelstadt vs Connor McDavid
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 44.7% vs McDavid 47.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 52.9%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 52.4%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 53.2%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Mittelstadt
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (886)
47.7% (715)
-3.0%
Power Play
40.2% (112)
51.9% (52)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
22.2% (9)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Mittelstadt shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Home
46.0% (491)
47.3% (387)
Away
42.4% (512)
48.1% (389)
By Period
Mittelstadt
McDavid
P1
44.0%
47.6%
P2
46.4%
50.0%
P3
41.9%
45.0%
Final 5 min
39.3%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.2%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |