Casey Mittelstadt vs Connor McDavid
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.9% vs McDavid 47.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 51.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 58.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Last 5: Mittelstadt 2-3 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Mittelstadt
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (139)
47.5% (650)
+2.9%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
48.6% (72)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
46.5% (43)
+53.5%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +53.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Mittelstadt is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (103).
Mittelstadt shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Home
59.3% (91)
50.2% (400)
Away
42.5% (80)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Mittelstadt
McDavid
P1
48.8%
47.5%
P2
49.1%
48.6%
P3
56.7%
46.7%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:27 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:18 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:16 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |