Chandler Stephenson vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stephenson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Stephenson leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 72.5%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 52.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Stephenson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Stephenson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Stephenson 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
3
1
Stephenson
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
4
1
Stephenson
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Stephenson
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (801)
55.4% (826)
-3.3%
Power Play
62.0% (242)
57.9% (221)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (183)
50.4% (129)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stephenson is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (751).
Stephenson shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Stephenson
O'Reilly
Home
53.1% (672)
55.8% (579)
Away
51.1% (554)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Stephenson
O'Reilly
P1
54.6%
57.7%
P2
51.3%
54.8%
P3
51.2%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 07:09 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:05 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 01:44 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 01:38 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 11:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |