Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 49.2% vs McDavid 53.4% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 86.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 69.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 66.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
Coyle
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Coyle
McDavid
Last 6: Coyle 5-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
1
Coyle
McDavid
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (921)
54.3% (1,002)
-3.7%
Power Play
51.0% (96)
44.8% (29)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
30.1% (83)
33.3% (15)
-3.2%
On power play, Coyle has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Coyle is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (759).
Coyle shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
Home / Away
Coyle
McDavid
Home
51.8% (517)
53.6% (507)
Away
46.7% (583)
53.8% (539)
By Period
Coyle
McDavid
P1
49.2%
52.6%
P2
52.8%
54.1%
P3
44.8%
54.9%
OT
54.5%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
49.1%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 06:53 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 15:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 13:16 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 00:24 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 02:46 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |