Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 51.9%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 52.4% vs McDavid 51.8% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 69.0%
Defensive zone
Coyle 60.0%
Neutral zone
Coyle 51.7%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Coyle
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Coyle
McDavid
Last 5: Coyle 2-3 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
3
Coyle
McDavid
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (849)
51.5% (889)
+1.2%
Power Play
66.7% (39)
63.9% (36)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (131)
51.2% (86)
-3.1%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Coyle is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Coyle shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Home / Away
Coyle
McDavid
Home
53.3% (512)
50.7% (513)
Away
51.9% (507)
53.2% (498)
By Period
Coyle
McDavid
P1
53.8%
52.3%
P2
47.8%
51.6%
P3
56.7%
51.7%
OT
38.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.1%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 10:44 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 11:23 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 05:43 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 1 | 14:28 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |