Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs McDavid 47.9% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 81.7%
Defensive zone
Coyle 68.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 53.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 68.2%
31.8%
68.2%
Coyle
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Coyle
McDavid
Last 10: Coyle 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
6
Coyle
McDavid
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
1
Coyle
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
47.5% (650)
+4.8%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
48.6% (72)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
46.5% (43)
-1.7%
On even strength, Coyle has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Coyle is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Coyle shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Coyle
McDavid
Home
49.0% (537)
50.2% (400)
Away
52.1% (516)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Coyle
McDavid
P1
48.7%
47.5%
P2
49.6%
48.6%
P3
53.1%
46.7%
OT
45.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.1%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:29 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:06 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 14:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 14:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |