Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 51.1%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 51.5% vs McDavid 51.0% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 73.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 68.0%
Neutral zone
Coyle 51.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Coyle
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Coyle
McDavid
Last 10: Coyle 3-7 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
4
Coyle
McDavid
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
5
4
Coyle
McDavid
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,046)
51.6% (803)
+1.4%
Power Play
57.6% (144)
50.0% (40)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (287)
36.4% (22)
+7.2%
On power play, Coyle has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Coyle is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,181).
Coyle shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Coyle
McDavid
Home
54.5% (719)
51.8% (415)
Away
48.8% (758)
50.4% (450)
By Period
Coyle
McDavid
P1
51.1%
47.5%
P2
50.0%
51.6%
P3
53.3%
55.5%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 09:17 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 09:13 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 05:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 12:41 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 08:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 02:09 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |