Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Coyle wins 55.4% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Evans 52.6% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 67.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 70.3%
Neutral zone
Coyle 52.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Coyle
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Coyle
Evans
Last 8: Coyle 4-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
3
Coyle
Evans
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (576)
54.4% (824)
-4.9%
Power Play
54.2% (48)
66.7% (9)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (145)
48.1% (289)
-4.7%
On power play, Evans has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Coyle is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Coyle shoots right. Evans is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Coyle
Evans
Home
47.4% (409)
55.1% (541)
Away
50.0% (360)
50.8% (581)
By Period
Coyle
Evans
P1
50.8%
51.8%
P2
46.0%
53.3%
P3
48.4%
53.8%
OT
64.3%
38.5%
Final 5 min
46.7%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.6%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 07:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 3 | 02:55 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |