Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.2% vs Tavares 57.8% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 84.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 75.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Coyle
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Coyle
Tavares
Last 10: Coyle 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
7
Coyle
Tavares
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
7
0
Coyle
Tavares
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Coyle
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (612)
59.0% (691)
-7.4%
Power Play
42.6% (47)
57.2% (173)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (146)
63.6% (11)
-17.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Coyle is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (609).
Coyle shoots right. Tavares is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Coyle
Tavares
Home
47.5% (394)
58.0% (500)
Away
52.8% (411)
59.7% (375)
By Period
Coyle
Tavares
P1
49.6%
59.5%
P2
48.9%
58.5%
P3
52.0%
58.2%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.8%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
54.0%▲
49.5%
50.2%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 16:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 09:29 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:40 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:41 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:35 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |