Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 35 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Tavares 54.4% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 48-43 in 91 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 58.6%
Defensive zone
Coyle 74.3%
Neutral zone
Coyle 59.0%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Coyle
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
43
-
48
(91 meetings)
43
48
Coyle
Tavares
Last 10: Coyle 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
28
Coyle
Tavares
35 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
27
7
Coyle
Tavares
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
13
Coyle
Tavares
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,856)
54.0% (16,108)
-4.6%
Power Play
50.0% (792)
56.5% (4,283)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (1,090)
50.6% (620)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (6,979).
Coyle shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Home / Away
Coyle
Tavares
Home
49.8% (4,835)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
47.9% (4,903)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Coyle
Tavares
P1
49.4%
55.0%
P2
48.3%
54.1%
P3
48.8%
54.1%
OT
49.0%
55.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 16:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 09:29 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:40 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:41 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:35 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |