Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 51.5% vs Sturm 59.0% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 50.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 53.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 51.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Coyle
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Coyle
Sturm
Last 7: Coyle 3-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Coyle
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,046)
60.6% (708)
-7.6%
Power Play
57.6% (144)
61.1% (18)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (287)
56.4% (101)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Coyle is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,181).
Coyle shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Coyle
Sturm
Home
54.5% (719)
61.6% (451)
Away
48.8% (758)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Coyle
Sturm
P1
51.1%
55.9%
P2
50.0%
58.9%
P3
53.3%
64.6%
OT
57.1%
70.6%
Final 5 min
48.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:30 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 10:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 07:26 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 01:35 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 18:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |