Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Sturm 56.1% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 50.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 86.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 67.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 67.9%
32.1%
67.9%
Coyle
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
10
(21 meetings)
11
10
Coyle
Sturm
Last 10: Coyle 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
2
Coyle
Sturm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
4
Coyle
Sturm
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
5
4
Coyle
Sturm
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,856)
57.1% (2,719)
-7.7%
Power Play
50.0% (792)
61.3% (62)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (1,090)
51.0% (498)
-7.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (6,979).
Coyle shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Coyle
Sturm
Home
49.8% (4,835)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
47.9% (4,903)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Coyle
Sturm
P1
49.4%
56.5%
P2
48.3%
54.9%
P3
48.8%
57.4%
OT
49.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
48.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:49 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:29 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:30 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 10:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 07:26 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 01:35 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 18:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 06:57 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 02:11 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 2 | 00:20 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 1 | 00:13 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |