Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Sturm 57.1% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 52.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 50.1%
Neutral zone
Coyle 50.2%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Coyle
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Coyle
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Coyle
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Coyle
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (576)
62.1% (356)
-12.6%
Power Play
54.2% (48)
75.0% (4)
-20.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (145)
38.7% (62)
+4.7%
On power play, Sturm has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Coyle is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Coyle shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Coyle
Sturm
Home
47.4% (409)
61.8% (191)
Away
50.0% (360)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Coyle
Sturm
P1
50.8%
58.0%
P2
46.0%
57.9%
P3
48.4%
60.6%
Final 5 min
46.7%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:49 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:29 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |