Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 54.1% vs Larkin 52.7% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Dvorak leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 65.9%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 61.8%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 57.1%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
Dvorak
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Dvorak
Larkin
Last 10: Dvorak 6-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
4
0
Dvorak
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Dvorak
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
8
4
Dvorak
Larkin
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (914)
51.5% (1,025)
+3.5%
Power Play
57.0% (149)
60.0% (285)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (91)
49.5% (182)
-4.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dvorak is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Dvorak shoots left. Larkin is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (961).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Larkin
Home
55.1% (552)
52.7% (767)
Away
54.0% (602)
53.1% (725)
By Period
Dvorak
Larkin
P1
54.5%
52.0%
P2
54.6%
53.0%
P3
55.1%
52.9%
OT
44.8%
63.6%
Final 5 min
47.3%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
66.0%▲
60.0%
54.5%
Larkin
64.0%▲
55.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | 3 | 13:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 2 | 18:45 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 2 | 11:18 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 1 | 02:28 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:37 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:40 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 1 | 18:49 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |