Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dvorak wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 55.3% vs Larkin 54.2% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 76.4%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 68.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Dvorak
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Dvorak
Larkin
Last 10: Dvorak 3-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
4
Dvorak
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
3
Dvorak
Larkin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (857)
52.6% (1,117)
+3.8%
Power Play
69.0% (29)
60.7% (305)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (174)
55.9% (177)
-5.3%
On power play, Dvorak has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dvorak is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Dvorak shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Larkin
Home
55.1% (501)
54.7% (783)
Away
56.4% (559)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Dvorak
Larkin
P1
55.8%
55.9%
P2
52.5%
56.1%
P3
58.2%
51.1%
OT
63.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.9%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:53 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 17:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 08:42 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:57 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |