Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 51.8% vs Larkin 54.1% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.4%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 54.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Dvorak
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dvorak
Larkin
Last 5: Dvorak 3-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
1
Dvorak
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Dvorak
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (686)
53.6% (886)
-1.4%
Power Play
49.0% (104)
59.3% (317)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (127)
48.7% (152)
+4.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dvorak is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (575).
Dvorak shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Larkin
Home
54.1% (423)
56.6% (700)
Away
50.2% (494)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Dvorak
Larkin
P1
51.4%
55.4%
P2
52.0%
54.7%
P3
52.4%
52.7%
OT
60.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
49.6%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2023 | OT | 01:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 2 | 06:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2022 | OT | 04:38 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 09:07 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |