Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 56.0% vs Larkin 55.0% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Dvorak leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 72.9%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 56.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Dvorak
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Dvorak
Larkin
Last 10: Dvorak 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
1
Dvorak
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
0
Dvorak
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
3
Dvorak
Larkin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (291)
55.9% (943)
+1.1%
Power Play
83.3% (18)
57.4% (244)
+25.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
46.2% (106)
+3.8%
On power play, Dvorak has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dvorak is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Dvorak shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Larkin
Home
58.3% (151)
56.0% (654)
Away
57.4% (190)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Dvorak
Larkin
P1
56.7%
54.4%
P2
56.7%
55.9%
P3
59.6%
55.2%
OT
60.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
61.8%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
57.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 18:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 14:03 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 2, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 11:57 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:57 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 14:34 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |