Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 56.0% vs Larkin 52.1% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 73.9%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 50.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 62.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
Dvorak
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Dvorak
Larkin
Last 9: Dvorak 3-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Dvorak
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Dvorak
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Dvorak
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (714)
51.8% (903)
+3.9%
Power Play
61.1% (131)
56.0% (225)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (122)
47.4% (76)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dvorak is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (553).
Dvorak shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Larkin
Home
59.0% (432)
55.6% (662)
Away
54.8% (535)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Dvorak
Larkin
P1
58.7%
49.9%
P2
53.9%
52.7%
P3
57.2%
53.0%
OT
70.6%
68.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
56.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 07:48 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 18:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 12:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 18:11 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 18:47 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 08:28 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |