Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dvorak wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 47.1% vs Larkin 46.2% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 50.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 50.4%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 54.0%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Dvorak
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Dvorak
Larkin
Last 10: Dvorak 3-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
4
Dvorak
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
1
Dvorak
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Dvorak
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (851)
45.5% (391)
+1.4%
Power Play
48.7% (113)
41.4% (29)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (42)
50.0% (12)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dvorak is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (642).
Dvorak shoots left. Larkin is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Larkin
Home
47.5% (526)
47.0% (181)
Away
46.0% (480)
44.2% (251)
By Period
Dvorak
Larkin
P1
48.0%
42.7%
P2
46.3%
52.4%
P3
46.2%
41.8%
OT
50.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
44.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
46.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 06:39 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 03:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |