Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 55.3% vs Dowd 49.9% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 70.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 86.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 62.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Dvorak
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dvorak
Dowd
Last 5: Dvorak 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Dvorak
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Dvorak
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (857)
52.2% (835)
+4.2%
Power Play
69.0% (29)
60.0% (10)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (174)
44.0% (350)
+6.6%
On power play, Dvorak has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Dvorak is 54.6% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Dvorak shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Dowd
Home
55.1% (501)
51.5% (619)
Away
56.4% (559)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Dvorak
Dowd
P1
55.8%
51.7%
P2
52.5%
51.6%
P3
58.2%
47.0%
OT
63.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
54.9%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:33 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 11:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 3 | 11:04 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |