Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.2% vs 54.1%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 52.9% vs Paul 53.3% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 57.5%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 60.8%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 61.3%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Dvorak
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Dvorak
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Dvorak
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (762)
53.2% (327)
+0.5%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
61.4% (57)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
50.0% (32)
-2.4%
On power play, Paul has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Dvorak is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Dvorak shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Paul
Home
53.6% (461)
54.6% (183)
Away
52.9% (507)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Dvorak
Paul
P1
54.1%
56.3%
P2
52.9%
54.8%
P3
53.8%
52.4%
OT
36.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
46.3%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |