Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.1% vs 52.2%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Dvorak wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.1% vs Paul 52.2% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 50.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 52.4%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Dvorak
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Dvorak
Paul
Last 10: Dvorak 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dvorak
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
5
Dvorak
Paul
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Dvorak
Paul
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (6,743)
52.5% (3,796)
+0.5%
Power Play
55.7% (1,005)
56.5% (480)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (887)
46.7% (574)
+4.3%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Dvorak is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,559).
Dvorak shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Paul
Home
54.7% (4,115)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
51.7% (4,520)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Dvorak
Paul
P1
54.5%
53.9%
P2
51.8%
51.0%
P3
53.0%
52.0%
OT
56.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.1%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 07:39 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:09 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:11 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 06:26 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 15:25 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:26 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 09:21 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2022 | OT | 02:41 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 13:02 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 07:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |