Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 62 meetings). Giroux wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 56.8% vs Larkin 52.7% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Giroux leads 76-73 in 149 meetings
Offensive zone
Giroux 67.0%
Defensive zone
Giroux 65.3%
Neutral zone
Giroux 63.9%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Giroux
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
76
-
73
(149 meetings)
76
73
Giroux
Larkin
Last 10: Giroux 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
26
36
Giroux
Larkin
62 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
30
20
Giroux
Larkin
50 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Giroux
20
17
Giroux
Larkin
37 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (13,861)
51.7% (9,019)
+4.1%
Power Play
60.5% (4,075)
58.5% (2,125)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (2,518)
50.2% (1,122)
+7.2%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Giroux is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (14,370).
Giroux shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Home / Away
Giroux
Larkin
Home
59.2% (10,252)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
54.5% (10,242)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Giroux
Larkin
P1
57.5%
52.7%
P2
56.2%
53.1%
P3
57.3%
52.1%
OT
51.4%
58.4%
Final 5 min
58.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
56.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 05:55 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 12:35 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 15:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:00 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 16:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 09:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 18:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 13:10 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Claude Giroux |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:46 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 15:36 | Neutral | Claude Giroux |