Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.0% vs 57.5%). Giroux wins 58.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 57.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Giroux 53.9%
Defensive zone
Giroux 61.9%
Neutral zone
Giroux 53.8%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Giroux
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Giroux
Hertl
Last 7: Giroux 4-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
1
0
Giroux
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Giroux
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Giroux
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (661)
57.0% (718)
-1.5%
Power Play
65.5% (194)
64.9% (188)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
58.6% (297)
44.2% (77)
+14.4%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Giroux is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (911).
Giroux shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Giroux
Hertl
Home
59.0% (576)
59.2% (463)
Away
56.9% (576)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Giroux
Hertl
P1
57.0%
56.3%
P2
58.1%
55.4%
P3
58.9%
60.5%
OT
52.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
61.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
58.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 02:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:02 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 13:17 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |