Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on defensive-zone draws (54% H2H, 26 meetings). Giroux wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 56.8% vs Hertl 54.2% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Giroux leads 34-33 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Giroux 58.3%
Defensive zone
Giroux 63.3%
Neutral zone
Giroux 59.3%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Giroux
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
33
(67 meetings)
34
33
Giroux
Hertl
Last 10: Giroux 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
12
12
Giroux
Hertl
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
14
12
Giroux
Hertl
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
9
Giroux
Hertl
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (13,861)
53.8% (8,268)
+2.0%
Power Play
60.5% (4,075)
59.3% (1,975)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (2,518)
46.3% (806)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Giroux is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (14,370).
Giroux shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Giroux
Hertl
Home
59.2% (10,252)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
54.5% (10,242)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Giroux
Hertl
P1
57.5%
53.6%
P2
56.2%
54.1%
P3
57.3%
55.3%
OT
51.4%
46.5%
Final 5 min
58.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
56.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 06:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 01:25 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 04:49 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 14:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 02:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |