Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Giroux wins 63.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 60.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.2%
Defensive zone
Giroux 87.2%
Neutral zone
Giroux 56.5%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Giroux
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Giroux
Hertl
Last 7: Giroux 5-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
0
Giroux
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
3
1
Giroux
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Giroux
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
60.3% (395)
58.1% (823)
+2.2%
Power Play
67.3% (107)
56.2% (265)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
65.4% (153)
62.9% (35)
+2.5%
On power play, Giroux has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Giroux is 63.6% vs left-shot opponents (519).
Giroux shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Giroux
Hertl
Home
65.9% (337)
59.7% (561)
Away
59.1% (318)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Giroux
Hertl
P1
62.1%
51.6%
P2
64.5%
63.8%
P3
60.9%
58.6%
OT
70.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
60.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
62.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 06:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 01:25 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |