Scouting Report
Colton Sissons holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sissons on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sissons wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sissons 55.5% vs Larkin 52.4% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 78.7%
Defensive zone
Sissons 64.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Sissons
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Sissons
Larkin
Last 6: Sissons 2-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Sissons
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sissons
2
1
Sissons
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Sissons
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sissons
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (428)
51.7% (878)
+5.3%
Power Play
58.8% (17)
58.5% (246)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (118)
48.2% (166)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Sissons has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Sissons is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Sissons shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Sissons
Larkin
Home
52.9% (263)
52.4% (647)
Away
59.7% (300)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Sissons
Larkin
P1
56.3%
52.2%
P2
57.8%
53.1%
P3
55.4%
51.7%
OT
0.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
52.1%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sissons
60.0%▬
59.0%
56.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:37 | Defensive | Colton Sissons |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:50 | Defensive | Colton Sissons |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |